In his weekly research note today, Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist for Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc., proclaimed, "Recession ending - slow growth ahead."
In sum, Bittles is encouraged by the economic data he is tracking and is forecasting a slow - but steady - recovery.
His first parameter is the stock market.
"Stocks gained for the fifth week in a row last week with the S&P 500 up nearly 50 percent since the March lows. The equity markets are benefiting from much better-than-expected second-quarter earnings reports that have triggered a host of analysts' upgrades and from the potential for the economy to resume growth later this year. Despite the outsized gains in the stock market the past four months, the weight of the technical evidence suggests additional improvement with the potential for the S&P 500 Index to approach 1025 to 1050. The two strongest arguments for higher prices are the fact that investors have fought the current rally most of the way and that the rally is one of the broadest in market history," Bittles said.
Investor sentiment is increasingly bullish, Bittles said. The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows, for the first time in six weeks, more bulls than bears.
"This argues that until such time that investors become excessively optimistic and/or the breadth gives out and negative divergences creep in, the benefit of the doubt belongs to the bulls. Since the March lows, investors have remained cautious and skeptical. With stocks at new recovery highs, investor psychology is turning increasingly optimistic.
Bittles said he expects the U.S. Department of Labor's July Employment report due Friday will show that the economy shed 330,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 9.5 percent from 9.6 percent in June.
"Despite the weak labor market, we expect the U.S. economy will stabilize early in the third quarter and enjoy modest growth before year-end. The second half of 2009 should benefit from record-low short-term interest rates and massive government stimulus programs, including cash-for-clunkers, that is expected to cause a burst of new car buying," Bittles said.
The stock market shared some of Bittles' optimism today, posting a strong rally. The top local stocks in the BizTimes Stock Index were Joy Global Inc. (up $1.56 to $38.53), Modine Manufacturing Inc. (up $1.50 to $9.07) and Bucyrus International Inc. (up $1.42 to $30.83). The largest local decliners this morning were Weyco Group Inc. (down 32 cents to $23.80) and MGIC Investment Corp. (down 12 cents to $6.37).

Conditions for the nation's manufacturers continued to improve in July, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported today.
The ISM Index rose to 48.9 percent in July from 44.8 percent in June. The July index is the strongest since September.
Both production and new orders rose above 50 percent. The ISM Index has been improving slowly since hitting a low of 32.9 percent in December. The Index was last above 50 percent in January 2008.
Milwaukee manufacturers are not yet faring quite as well as their national counterparts. The ISM's Seasonally Adjusted Milwaukee Index declined five points to 45 in July. A year ago, it was at 44. New Orders Received dropped three points to 45. Production declined eight points to 45. Backlog is down eight points to 38. Supplier Lead Times dropped three points to 55, but still a positive number.

Ford Motor Co. announced today that its U.S. July sales increased 2.3 percent to 165,279 vehicles from the same month a year ago, the company's first monthly increase in nearly two years. Ford had not had a monthly increase in year-to-year sales since November 2007.
The automaker said that it benefited from the federal Cash for Clunkers new-car incentive program, which is hanging in the balance, awaiting U.S. Senate consideration for extension of federal funding.
The Obama administration pushed for an additional $2 billion for Cash for Clunkers after announcing over the weekend that the program could expire as early as this week unless the Senate acts, as the House did in voting overwhelmingly to approve the additional funding last Friday.
The program provides consumers with $3,500 or $4,500 in incentives for trading in gas guzzlers for more fuel efficient vehicles.
Ford spokesman George Pipas told The Associated Press, "We were having a good month - and Ford's been having some good months lately - but the (Clunkers) program really put us over the top for sure."
The program is meeting some resistance from Republicans in the Senate.
"This is crazy to try to rush this thing through again while they're trying to rush through health care, and they want to get on to cap and trade electricity tax," said Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). "We've got to slow this thing down."
Ford's sales of cars in July rose 8.7 percent to 62,176 units, and sales of sport utility vehicles fell 36.1 percent to 6,526 units. The company's truck sales dropped 2.6 percent to 96,662 vehicles.
Ford will kick off an advertising campaign for the 2010 Ford Taurus on Tuesday, targeting "discerning consumers with a high-tech, detail-oriented focus on technology, innovation and style."
Matt VanDyke, Ford marketing director, said, "The convenience and ability to offer customers additional information at the touch of their mobile device speaks volumes on how technologically advanced the new Taurus is. This high-tech marketing process will showcase the attention to detail that customers shopping for Taurus will appreciate.

Employers interested in forming employee wellness programs will soon have an opportunity to learn some of the best practices in the industry.
Midland Health Testing, R&R Insurance, the Wisconsin Athletic Club and the Wellness Council of Wisconsin are teaming up with BizTimes Media to present a unique event where executives can exchange ideas for corporate wellness programs, discuss which types of plans work best for employees and how to promote overall healthy decision-making among workers.
The Fittest Execs Forum and Awards will be held Wednesday, Aug. 19, in the Pilot House at Discovery World at Pier Wisconsin.
The highlight of the event will be a lively panel discussion featuring the leaders in health and wellness in southeastern Wisconsin.
Some of the topics the panelists will discuss include creating a corporate culture of wellness, trends in wellness initiatives and how to keep costs of programs at a minimum to ensure a return on the investment.

The panelists at the program will be:

• Paul Casper, general manager, Helwig Carbon Products Inc., Milwaukee. Casper will discuss some of the features of the company's wellness plan that cater to the firm's 250 employees, including Helwig "garden spots," where employees can grow their own food. Casper also will discuss statistics on what has happened to the company's health care costs since putting a wellness plan into place.
• Jane Cooper, president & CEO, Patient Care, Milwaukee. Cooper will provide a high-level overview of wellness initiatives and some insight into the wellness program at Patient Care, which includes health risk assessments and savings of up to $750 for employees.
• Barbara Feiertag, corporate wellness manager and registered nurse, Marshall & Ilsley Corp. Feiertag oversees wellness initiatives that paid off recently when M&I was awarded the Welcoa Gold Well Workplace Award. Feiertag will provide insight and assistance to companies interested in the award and would like to share wellness ideas and program specifics to assist other companies in promoting a healthy workplace.
• John Foley, vice president of health services, Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield.
  Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield manages the 360 Health Program, a total health solution that provides a powerful combination of targeted programs and one-on-one services. Foley will discuss how wellness intersects with controlling health care costs and how individuals and business can create a culture of wellness in their homes and workplaces – a true win-win situation for all.
• Laurie O'Laughlin, vice president of human resources, InPro Corp., Muskego. O'Laughlin will explain how InPro provides wellness benefits to its 395 employees.

Registration and networking at the event will begin at 4 p.m., and the award presentation for the Fittest Execs Competition and the panel will begin at 4:30 p.m. Cocktails and hors d'oeuvres will be served. Attendees will be encouraged to stay for the Milwaukee Rotary Club's "Live @ the Lakefront" entertainment provided by the Daryl Stuermer Duo.
To register, or for more information on the event, please contact Mary Ernst at (414) 336-7125 or mary.ernst@biztimes.com.

MillerCoors LLC, the combined U.S. operations of SABMiller and Molson Coors Brewing, today reported a 16.4 percent rise in second-quarter net income.
America's second-largest brewing company said underlying net income in the quarter was $325.3 million, net sales up 1.6 percent to $2.14 billion in the April-June quarter.
"Since combining operations last July, we have achieved double-digit growth in underlying earnings for four consecutive quarters," said Leo Kiely, chief executive officer of the company, which is now based in Chicago.
The company's flagship products include Miller Lite and Coors Light.
MillerCoors said it on a path to deliver its stated goal of $500 million of annual cost savings by the third year of combined operation.

This week's edition of the Alliance National Business Report, an exclusive collection of headlines from award-winning local business publications throughout the nation, is available at www.bizpubs.org/headlines.asp. Readers of BizTimes Milwaukee can search the national headlines for news in their industries of interest.

Patina Solutions, a professional services firm headquartered in Brookfield, announced today it has opened its third office in Chicago.
Lynne Pallesen has been hired as a director of client solutions based in the company's newest office in the former Sears Tower in Chicago.
Patina Solutions deploys professionals generally over the age of 50 to work on engagements for companies in multiple industries. Patina provides a range of talent for functions, including, but not limited to, engineering, human resources, customer service, sales and marketing, finance, R&D and information technology.
Clients benefit from the experience and expertise of seasoned executives and managers who help them meet workload demands through special projects, interim management and executive needs, consulting, training and ongoing operational support.
"We are very pleased to be opening an office in Chicago, a huge market with a wide range of great companies," said Mike Harris, co-founder and chief executive officer of Patina Solutions. "I have worked with Lynne Pallesen in the past and she is a talented professional with a passion for client service. I know Lynne will be very effective at helping companies to meet their goals and introducing the new and unique concept of Patina to the Chicago marketplace."
Pallesen will be introducing Patina to corporations in Chicago. She has significant business development experience in Chicago including eight years with Alternative Resources Corp., where Harris served as CFO.
"I am excited to be working with Mike Harris again to build a business I believe in so deeply. The flexible workforce is the way of the future especially as companies navigate today's challenging financial environment," Pallesen said. "Patina's skilled and talented workforce brings exceptional wisdom, expertise and commitment to each engagement and does so with a strong work ethic and maturity."

QuadTech Inc., a Sussex-based designer and manufacturer of automated print controls, today announced the official corporate name change of its Irish subsidiary, Vigitek, to QuadTech Ireland.
Vigitek was purchased in May 2008 and is a leading designer and manufacturer of 100-percent print inspection technology.
The name change from Vigitek to QuadTech Ireland not only provides a brand unity, but also increases exposure of the state-of-the-art, print-defect detection technology to those global customers familiar with the QuadTech name, company spokesmen said.
"Over the past year we have been integrating Vigitek into the QuadTech family," said Karl Fritchen, president of QuadTech. "Now under a unified brand, QuadTech and QuadTech Ireland can offer continuous defect-detection solutions and best-in-class register and color controls that not only meet, but exceed our customers' expectations. We already have our engineering teams sharing expertise and enhancing our inspection technology. We are developing new capabilities and features - such as color monitoring and control - that the market is very hungry to implement."
In addition to a change in the company name, the former Vigitek products will also be renamed to fit within the QuadTech family of product offerings.
QuadTech is a division of Sussex-based Quad/Graphics Inc.
 

To celebrate the return of nonstop service between Milwaukee and Louisville, Midwest Airlines today has announced special roundtrip pricing of $136 for the new route.
“We’re thrilled to be back in Louisville,” said Greg Aretakis, Midwest' vice president of panning and revenue management. "This area has long been popular with Midwesterners. At the same time, travelers from Louisville and western Kentucky will once again have quick and convenient access to our hometown of Milwaukee and cities throughout the Midwest."
Tickets must be purchased at least 21 days in advance and by midnight, Aug. 14, for travel Aug. 18 through Nov. 19, 2009.
The twice-daily service offers connections to and from cities on Midwest’s route map. One-stop, same-plane service is available between Green Bay and Louisville. Service is provided on 37-seat Embraer 135 aircraft, featuring all-leather seating.
For flight information and reservations, visit www.midwestairlines.com.

The publishers of ThirdCoast Digest announced today that former Milwaukee Journal Sentinel performing arts writer Tom Strini is now contributing a new column exclusively for TCD.
"We’re excited to welcome the extraordinarily talented and highly-respected Tom Strini to ThirdCoast Digest," said TCD co-publisher Jon Anne Willow. "Strini's vast knowledge and experience will help establish ThirdCoast Digest as the leading destination for news and criticism about arts and culture in the Milwaukee region."
"Strini’s Culture Desk" will take on a broader swath of Milwaukee’s cultural scene than his most recent beat at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which was primarily music and dance. Strini will offer his take on the traditional performing arts - classical music, concert dance, theater, visual art and architecture - while also writing about broader topics including cooking, design, and the unexpected aesthetic moments of everyday life.
"My commitment to covering the Milwaukee arts scene has never been greater," Strini said. "I am grateful to ThirdCoast Digest for the opportunity to continue doing what I love, and I'm looking forward to helping build this online magazine into Milwaukee’s most important source for news, commentary, reviews and feature stories related to the performing arts, the visual arts, architecture, and to the art of living."
Tom Strini served The Milwaukee Journal and then the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel as dance critic, critic at large and music and dance critic for almost 27 years. He was one of several Journal Sentinel writers who took a buyout and left the paper on July 31, as the paper downsized.

Doug Neilson will leave his full-time post as president and chief executive officer of Visit Milwaukee on Friday, Aug. 7.
It was announced in late February that Neilson would be ending his eight-year tenure as of Dec. 31, 2009. While his day-to-day duties will end, he will be retained until Dec. 31 on a consultancy basis.
Neilson joined Visit Milwaukee (the former Greater Milwaukee Convention & Visitors Bureau) in 2001 after serving in an executive post with the San Francisco Convention & Visitors Bureau.
Neilson's successor at Visit Milwaukee has not been named. The executive responsibilities of Visit Milwaukee will be shared by senior staff members, Judy Widlowski, vice president of administration, David Fantle, vice president of public relations and Brent Foerster, vice president of sales and marketing with oversight from the organization’s executive committee.
"While the process to find Doug’s replacement by the search committee and the board has commenced, all parties agreed that it was in the best interest of Doug and Visit Milwaukee to relinquish the position of president at this time so he may return to his native San Francisco, rejoin his family, pursue new opportunities and allow the organization to move forward in search of his successor," said Lynda Kohler, Visit Milwaukee's board chair. "We can’t thank Doug enough for the leadership and enthusiasm he brought to building a better Milwaukee. The organization, under the leadership of its senior staff and the executive committee, is in good hands and will continue its mission to bring meetings and conventions to Milwaukee and grow the local tourism economy."
Visit Milwaukee markets Greater Milwaukee to tourists, convention and meeting planners nationally and internationally.

Some opponents of plans for an Amtrak train station at the Madison airport are pushing for the station to instead be built on a different site closer to the state Capitol. Read more in BizTimes Milwaukee's daily roundup of headlines from newspapers across the state at www.biztimes.com/#news.

The Department of Defense Appropriations Act, passed last week by the U.S. House of Representatives, contains roughly $2.7 million in funding that will assist manufacturers in Milwaukee. The act still needs Senate approval. For more, read the latest edition of the BizTimes Manufacturing Weekly bulletin.

While financial support is always welcome - no matter how the economy is faring - it's important to remember that time and leadership provided by business people and others through volunteer service is just as important, according to Vicki Spataro Wachniak, author of today's Milwaukee Biz Blog.

The Wisconsin State Fair Board today announced the principals of an investors group interested in saving The Milwaukee Mile.
Historic Mile LLC was chosen last Thursday evening by the Wisconsin State Fair Board during a special session.  The following morning, Fair board chair Susan Crane and interim executive director Craig Barkelar executed a letter of intent for a license agreement with Historic Mile LLC principals Tony Machi, Jim Beaudoin and Steve Jones.
Jones most recently was general manager and chief operating officer of The Milwaukee Mile in 2009.
The letter of intent is not a promoter agreement, but does allow Historic Mile LLC to move forward exclusively to demonstrate it has sufficient financial resources available to fund operations at The Milwaukee Mile, including sanction fees, license fees and overhead expenses.
Key to the ongoing process for Historic Mile LLC is securing NASCAR and Indy Racing League (IRL) events at The Milwaukee Mile.
"The Fair Park Board would like to see NASCAR and IRL at The Milwaukee Mile next season and well into the future," Crane said. "Having just signed the letter of intent on Friday, the Fair Park Board and the public must allow Historic Mile LLC time to progress with these key sanctioning bodies. While we would all be overjoyed to see a deal signed today, we must also be patient. Everyone involved is working diligently to keep things moving."
The Milwaukee Mile dates back to 1903.
Machi retired after 30 years as a judicial court commissioner for Milwaukee County and actively competes in road racing events. He has been on the Milwaukee Region SCCA Board since 1975. He also has served as a board member and State Chapter Chairmen for March of Dimes -Wisconsin Chapter.
"We are honored the Wisconsin State Fair Board has chosen Historic Mile LLC to build on the rich heritage of The Mile. It's been a very intriguing process, beginning with assembling a group of individuals that are passionate about preserving the history of our beloved speedway," Machi said. "It will continue to be challenging and rewarding in shaping the historic Mile's future."
Beaudoin's involvement in racing began when his father, Jim Beaudoin Sr., began road
racing in the 1960's, then actively competed himself in the SCCA. Beaudoin
Racing ran a successful IndyCar Series team in the early 1980's.
"Like every other race fan in Wisconsin, continuing the tradition of racing at The Mile is a cause near and dear to me," Beaudoin said. "Our agreement with the State Fair Board is a pledge to work in partnership with the local community, sanctioning bodies, and others who share our commitment to keep racing in Milwaukee at the Historic Mile, a premiere motorsports venue."
Under Jones' direction operationally, The Milwaukee Mile in 2009 produced NASCAR and IRL events that were run with precision that saw an increase in attendance over the previous year. 
"There is tremendous room for growth at this track if we are given the opportunity," said Jones. "In addition to traditional events, we are already heavy into discussions with two major spectator events that will be new to fans at The Mile."