Although the stock market suffered its largest drop since the 9-11 terrorist attacks of 2001 and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spooked investors in a private speech last week, Bruce Bittles of Robert W. Baird & Co. Inc. today said he does not believe a recession is looming.
Last week, Greenspan hinted of the possibility that a weakened housing market could plunge the U.S. economy into recession.
In his Morning Conference Call this today, Bittles disputed that prognosis.
"The violent plunge in stock prices last week is not anticipated to be the signal of a much larger correction or the start of a bear market. Soaring volatility, skyrocketing volume and an overwhelming demand for put options last week are usually technical developments found at stock market lows as opposed to a market top," Bittles said. "In addition, bull market peaks typically take place over an extended period of time, unlike bear market bottoms that can occur virtually overnight. Just two weeks ago, the Dow Industrials, Transports and Utilities hit new record highs along with the NYSE advance/decline line. This would suggest that last week's break was more likely due to the fact that stocks had traveled almost 1000 days without a stiff correction and, therefore, vulnerable to negative news."
The BizTimes Stock Index, which measures the cumulative value of the stocks of publicly traded companies based in southeastern Wisconsin, mirrored the broader market by vaulting to an all-time high of 189.02 on Feb. 21 and then dropping significantly over four consecutive days last week. The local stock index, which is posted at www.biztimes.com, lost 2.96 points to close at 175.38 Friday.
Local stocks continued to slide in early morning trading today, as decliners again far outnumbered advancers. The largest local decliners this morning were Bucyrus International Inc. (down $1.26 to $47.92) and Joy Global Inc. (down 99 cents to $41.41). The largest local advancers this morning were Harley-Davidson Inc. (up $1.23 to $65.00) and Manpower Inc. (up 46 cents to $72.78).
"The threat of a housing-induced recession set the stock market decline in motion last week. The inverted yield curve and extreme levels of debt in all corners of the economy argue the long-term risk to the economy is to the downside. But there has never been a recession without the stock market and/or commodity markets trending down in anticipation of economic weakness," Bittles said. "Stocks and commodity prices historically are leading indicators of the economy and not the other way around. This time is not likely to be different. Problems in the subprime lending market are unlikely to spill over into the general economy. Housing affordability measures are already off their lows suggesting the worst for the housing cycle has past. Considering long-term interest rates have dropped and the Fed is in position to lower short-term rates, housing is expected to improve later this year. The important economic news this week is Friday's Employment Report, which could be a win-win situation for the bulls. A weak report would place the Fed closer to acting to lower rates and stronger data would argue against recession."

The Wisconsin Department of Tourism today is expected to announce a new slogan to promote the state in 2007.
Kelli Trumble, the new secretary of the Department of Tourism, told WisBusiness.com that the new advertising campaign will be "Great Moments." The current "Life's So Good" tagline will be retained, but the new campaign will make greater use of close-up and lifestyle photography in an effort to evoke emotional and nostalgic vacation memories. To read the WisBusiness interview of Trumble, visit www.wisbusiness.com/index.iml?Article=90093. WisBusiness.com is a media partner of SBT.

Roundy's Inc. today will open a new Pick 'n Save store in West Milwaukee at 2201 Miller Park Way.
The new grocery store at the former site of the Hotpoint appliance factory will be part of the revitalized area along Miller Park Way. Old warehouses in the area are being transformed into a vibrant retail corridor.
The doors to the new story will open at 4:30 p.m., followed by grand opening ceremonies.
To mark the occasion, Roundy's will donate $2,500 to the Falk Families Survivors' Fund. The store's doors will close at 7 p.m., and the store will open for shopping on Tuesday morning.

Rick Marshall has been named as president of Wausau Window and Wall Systems, in addition to his current role as president of Linetec, one of the nation's largest independent architectural finishers.
Both companies are located in Wausau and are subsidiaries of Apogee Enterprises Inc.
"Each company is a recognized leader in its industry for quality, performance and reliability. Each has benefited from the strengths and innovations of the other. While their success is intertwined, each is uniquely positioned to serve its customers' needs," Marshall said. "I look forward to guiding the collaborative and individual success of both businesses."
Russell Huffer, chairman and chief executive officer of Apogee, said, "Rick has demonstrated his leadership capabilities through the significant performance improvements achieved at Linetec in recent years. He has been instrumental in improving Linetec's operational and financial performance, as well as in bringing in new business and customers."
Marshall joined Wausau and Linetec in 1996 as divisional vice president of finance for both business units, and in 1999 was promoted to Linetec president. Prior to Apogee, he worked at IBM.

The City of Milwaukee announced today a partnership with the Milwaukee Urban League to present a series of events to increase minority business ownership in Bronzeville, a cultural and entertainment district just northwest of downtown Milwaukee.
The series, entitled the Bronzeville Business Builders, will kick off on Thursday, March 8, from 5:30 to 8 p.m. at the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources building, 2300 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive.
The goal of the program is to provide resources for perspective business owners and to help existing businesses in the neighborhood to grow, said Ralph Hollmon, president and chief executive officer of the Milwaukee Urban League.
The kickoff event will provide information on business development, an overview on the city's business toolbox, tips on improving credit worthiness from Legacy Bank and a list of available development sites in Bronzeville.
"From my standpoint, I think the long-term goal is to make Bronzeville a destination point," Hollmon said. "We want Bronzeville to be one of the key economic centers of the African-American community. You can achieve that by having thriving, successful businesses and entrepreneurs located here."
"We want Bronzeville to be a place where businesses are built and entrepreneurs succeed," Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett said. "The Bronzeville Business Builders events offer a chance to learn more about starting or growing a business in Milwaukee’s African-American Cultural & Entertainment District."
Bronzeville's commercial district boundaries are West Meinecke Avenue on the north, North Seventh Street on the west, West Garfield Avenue on the south and halfway between North Fourth Street and North Martin Luther King Drive on the east. Its cultural anchor is America's Black Holocaust Museum, 2233 N. Fourth St.

Although you wouldn't know it by the temperature outside, spring is just around the corner. BizTimes Daily readers can get a little spring fever in the office this week by tuning in to Webcasts of Milwaukee Brewers spring training games.
The Milwaukee Brewers will Webcast 18 exhibition games from Arizona and Texas this spring.
The Brewers will Webcast today's game against the Chicago White Sox, Tuesday's game against the White Sox, Wednesday's game against San Francisco, Thursday's game against San Francisco and Friday's game against Kansas City.
Brian Anderson, the Brewers' new television play-by-play announcer, and veteran analyst Bill Schroeder will call the games.
To listen to the spring games for free, visit www.brewers.com.

Sonic Foundry Inc. a Madison-based provider of automated webcasting and visual content management solutions, will open the Nasdaq Stock Market on Wednesday, March 7, at 8:30 a.m. CDT.
The event will highlight the company's new and advanced multi-modal search capabilities for online video and web presentations.
Sonic Foundry chief executive officer Rimas Buinevicius and other members of the company's management team will lead the NASDAQ opening ceremonies. To view the opening on the Nasdaq Webcam, go to http://www.nasdaq.com/reference/marketsite_about.stm.

Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co. Inc., which celebrated its 150th birthday last week, today announced it has again been named "America's Most Admired" life/health insurer in Fortune magazine's annual survey.
Milwaukee-based Northwestern Mutual is the only company to lead its industry in each of its 24 years it has been included in the Fortune survey of industry professionals and analysts.
The "America's Most Admired" industry rankings are featured in Fortune's March 19 edition, which became available on newsstands today.
Other Wisconsin companies recognized in the survey include Bemis Company Inc., Johnson Controls Inc. and Manpower Inc.
"We are very pleased to receive this recognition from our peers. It's the highest of honors," said Edward Zore, president and chief executive officer of Northwestern Mutual. "We have a lot to celebrate as a company - our 150th anniversary, surpassing the $1 trillion mark of life insurance protection, and now, being named 'America's Most Admired' life insurer - quite a year so far."
Northwestern Mutual received an overall score of 7.31, which is derived from eight key attributes used to calculate a company's overall "corporate reputation" score. Northwestern Mutual was voted first in the attributes of: quality of management, quality of products and services, long-term investment, financial soundness, people management, social responsibility and use of corporate assets.
There are a total of five "Most Admired" companies ranked in the life/health insurance category. In addition to Northwestern Mutual, the other life/health insurance companies ranked in the survey are AFLAC, Massachusetts Mutual Life, New York Life and Prudential.

Commuter rail would fuel economic growth throughout southeastern Wisconsin, according to Blue Horse Inc. chief executive officer Bob Welke, who is the author of today's Milwaukee Biz Blog.