The frenzied public response to this week's online BizTimes Poll provides a foretelling glimpse into the intense political ground game that is shaping Wisconsin's Republican primary gubernatorial race between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann (R-Janesville).
Following Gov. Jim Doyle's announcement that he will not seek a third term in office, BizTimes invited readers to indicate which candidate they would be most likely to vote for to be Wisconsin's next governor in 2010.
The field in the poll on Tuesday featured seven candidates. In addition to Neumann and Walker, the candidates included fellow Republican Mark Todd and Democrats Tom Barrett, Jon Erpenbach, Ron Kind and Barbara Lawton.
In the first few hours of the live poll, Barrett collected the most votes, as the Milwaukee mayor was recovering from a brutal assault at Wisconsin State Fair on the previous Saturday night. At that point, Barrett was no doubt a sentimental favorite.
By the afternoon, the ground campaigns of Walker and Neumann had seized the poll. Walker opened up an early lead with 50 percent of the votes, followed by Neumann with 40 percent.
Later Tuesday evening, some of Neumann's supporters mounted a Twitter campaign to rock the poll. They did just that, and Neumann opened a commanding 56 to 40 lead over Walker.
Walker's supporters did not let that surge go unanswered. By Tuesday evening, Walker had rebounded to take a 50 to 46 lead.
However, Neumann's supporters fired the final volley, claiming a 52 to 45 lead as the poll closed Wednesday morning.
By the time the poll was done, more than 5,350 votes had been cast. To give you an idea of the fervor of that particular poll, consider that most of the daily polls at BizTimes.com attract only a few hundred votes.
Consider the BizTimes Poll to be the first straw poll for the Republican gubernatorial primary. Completely unscientific and unofficial, it holds no tangible bearing on the race.
And yet the results speak clearly to the nimble, fiery and devoted networks of supporters who are gathering behind both Neumann and Walker.
The race will be determined by how many out-state voters Walker can add to his Milwaukee base. Out-state voters have traditionally rejected Milwaukee candidates. Walker has tried to overcome that dynamic with a statewide tour on his Harley and a headstart in campaign coffers.
It is going to be an intense and expensive primary.
Steve Jagler is executive editor of BizTimes Milwaukee.
1 Comment
This is terrific news for business. Mark Neumann is cleary a superior candidate to Scott Walker. Mr. Walker has done a decent job as Milw. Co. Exec, but he does have some weaknesses. For one, other than a short gig as a fundraiser(more of a front)for the Red Cross he has been employed by no one other than government. Neumann on the other hand has been teacher, Congressman, builder, business owner. He has met payrolls, paid vendors,created jobs and put his own money where his mouth is. We are at a crossroads in Wisconsin between the continual and repressive growth of big government and big taxes and the chance to grow our economy and get government out of the way of business. Mark Neumann is the governor that will make it happen. Scott Walker is a good man, but Republicans need to stop nominating candidates that have earned their "right to fail" like Bob Dole and John McCain. They need to go outside the box and offer a candidate that can deliver the right kind of "hope and change."