In a year when home prices across the United States. have fallen 15 percent, the housing market in several metropolitan markets that have to date shown resilience are now falling in line with the national downward trend, according to an analysis of home price trends in more than 375 U.S. markets based on the Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The weakening housing picture is broad and deep: home price forecasts have been revised downward for nearly all the 375 metro markets evaluated by Fiserv. Among the markets where the outlook for housing prices has dimmed:

The outlook for the suburban New York City markets of Southern Connecticut and Central New Jersey have been revised down, reflecting job losses on Wall Street and at hedge funds, as well as anticipated cuts in year-end bonus payments. Average house prices are forecast to decline 12 percent over the next year - a faster rate than the 7 percent decline experienced over the 12-month period that ended June 30, 2008.

One-time bubble markets in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona, which have already seen home values fall 20 to 40 percent over the past year, are showing no signs of moderation in declining prices. In the Merced, Calif., area, for example, average home prices have declined 43 percent over the past 12 months, and are projected to fall another 22 percent by the middle of 2009. Similarly, housing prices in Tucson, Ariz., are forecast to decline 26 percent over the next year, after falling nearly 13 percent over the past 12 months.

Manufacturing centers, such as those in Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan, are seeing declining home values due to the rising number of foreclosures as job losses increase in the automotive and other manufacturing sectors.

The Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes are generated by Brookfield-based Fiserv.

Nationally, median home prices have fallen 15 percent over the past year to $206,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Over the next year, Fiserv forecasts that the average metro area will experience another 13 percent drop in home prices. The median monthly mortgage payment in the 2008 second-quarter stayed steady at 19 percent.

"The 2008 second-quarter Fiserv Case-Shiller home price index numbers were weaker than expected. In part, this was due to the credit market problems as fewer households were able to qualify for mortgages as lenders continue restricting lending standards," said David Stiff, economist at Fiserv. "In many collapsing bubble markets, there was also a flood of home foreclosure sales, which increased the downward pressure on prices."

However, Stiff sees at least some reason for optimism.

"Because home prices are falling so rapidly, housing affordability is improving quickly in over-priced markets. When the mortgage market does stabilize, there is the potential for a sudden rebound in housing," said Stiff. "But if the recession causes household incomes to drop, that rebound will be pushed out even further."